Society falls into the abyss of illusion. Whatever is applicable in the context of art is also for the rest of all works, creative or intellectual, by human beings. Whatever we decide does not stop at art, AI inevitably will consume in some form all disciplines and master them.
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A significant driver of rapid adoption is social media engagement. It is undeniable the leverage AI currently presents as a tool to be leveraged for growing account visibility. It therefore makes it a bit harder to discern overall public opinion as these accounts and posts get significant boosting across all media platforms. It would seem in some aspects that AI is winning strongly over content created by humans. However, it is not clear if that is the case. Nonetheless, it all becomes a moot point as AI continues progress towards results that are no longer distinguishable from human.
"Where is the value in AI creativity? Does it actually create anything? What can be said of artistic works in which the creation was essentially a series of playing at the lottery of the machine until something fantastic emerges? Spinning the wheel of chance and instead of red, black or some number, it is a series of lexical phrases with which we hope to catch the spinning ball on the Roulette and award us a work of art. "
An AI composite of my own intended to capture the counter perspective of AI art.
https://preview.redd.it/qrk13sp4yu3b1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbdbef55aad53dce3b9114eb62a6522d2beeb41f
At some point, if we can simply wish something into existence, then what is the point? We have removed the journey of the human experience. If we were to look backwards at astounding past works, how would we view them through todays lens? Would it look like the following?
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Where does all this leave us with meaning and understanding of the world? As AI is essentially a skill/technology replication machine, this means that there are no safe plateaus on the skill ladder to reach towards.
"Climbing the skill ladder is going to look more like running on a treadmill at the gym. No matter how fast you run, you aren’t moving, AI is still right behind you learning everything that you can do."
These are some concepts from my further and deeper elaborations on AI and the impacts to culture and society - https://dakara.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-end-to-all-things
It is my opinion that art may be at the forefront of societal awareness of AI impacts, but many have still not yet considered what it means for everything else.

Been a long time since the last RenPlat post I made, been swamped up in schoolwork and other stuff. I beat Gardenia with no losses with Crobat, Umbreon, Monferno, and Grotle and Jupiter was pretty easy. I’ve been really winning the lottery with natures, (Metang has a Brave nature which is pretty nifty if I do say so myself). Only three losses, a Surskit, Machop, and a Shiny Bidoof.

That's a wrap, folks! Feis Ile 2023 has been an incredible experience, and it ended with a bang on Ardbeg's open day today.
The chosen crew for Operation Smokescreen, a free single-cask tasting panel

• Ardbeg Committee members could enter a lottery for a free experience called "Operation Smokescreen" in the runup to the Feis. I signed us both up, and my wife won a place! Here's what she could disclose to me. During the Operation, the fortunate 50 or so fans entered an elaborately decorated mad scientist's lab, where they tried samples from five Ardbeg single casks and Ardbeg 10 at cask strength. The mad scientist in question was Gillian Macdonald, the company's master blender. Working in teams, the lucky ducks offered tasting notes on the five casks using Ardbeg 10 as a reference point. My wife guessed that the Ardbeg crew will blend these cask types to make a new expression, perhaps an upcoming Committee release.
• This year's open day single cask release (495 pounds) was an 11.5-year-old whisky aged in a first-fill amontillado sherry cask. Even at that steep price, the line was massive, and it kept up all day, never letting up as new arrivals joined in. I saw stray bottle flippers grabbing as many as they could and then immediately leaving festival day, which is a real shame.
• I missed Bruichladdich and Bunnahabhain days doing activities at other distilleries, but I cannot imagine anyone does it better than Ardbeg. Their day is a fitting capstone to the week because they go all out. Elaborate decorations (this year, giant green octopus tentacles hanging from the windows, and comic panels all over the walls); staff in sci-fi and superhero costumes, along with savvy guests; and by far the most activities and games of Feis week. The entry ticket was 10 pounds but was a bargain: two drams, a "smokie" (a smoked fish), a mini-glencairn glass, and a scavenger hunt-style game that could earn another dram. And the crowds were the biggest we saw all week, by far.
• Aside from offering the whole core range and the Heavy Vapours festival bottle as those two included drams, Ardbeg also had a cash bar with very reasonable prices for rare or pricey whiskies, including Ardbeg 25 for 20 pounds and Supernova 2014 and other old Committee releases or Feis bottles for 10 pounds. The bartenders also had very heavy hands. A single pour was enough for my wife and me to split, with me filling up a 20 ml sample bottle and still having leftovers to nose and sip. There was also a fun game of chance where, for five pounds a play, we drew a surprise dram from a set of small mailbox-like lockers. The pours ranged from the standard Ardbeg 10 up to Twenty-something, Renaissance, Alligator Committee Release, 25, etc. In our three plays, we got the Heavy Vapours, 8-year-old For Discussion, and Traigh Bhan 19-year-old Batch 4. Not too bad!
• There were tons of games and activities. One of our favorites was a comic workshop where people could draw this year's "Heavy Vapours" villains or heroes (from the Planet Ardbeg comic book series) on merchandise they purchased at the gift shop. In my wife's case, she got a free lab coat from Operation Smokescreen and later added her own hand-drawn touch to it.

The angry smokecloud residing in every bottle of Heavy Vapours

• In contrast to other distilleries, Ardbeg festival day tastings are booked day-of. We jumped on the 1:30 tasting, led by distillery manager Colin Gordon and two employees, including Emma, our tour guide from yesterday. The tasting covered (1) new make; (2) Heavy Vapours; (3) Blaaack; (4) Supernova 2014; and (5) this year's Amontillado single cask. The price was 50 pounds, up from 40 pounds last year, and was held outside thanks to the spectacular weather. While it was nice, it was also mobbed - there must have been over 70-80 people in our tasting group. The pours were well worth the cost, although I preferred other experiences earlier in the week with smaller groups or more organization.
• We saw the swan couple again alongside the Ardbeg pier. Throughout the week, they proved themselves more dedicated festival attendees than we were.
• Note from last night: Lucci's Bar at the Bowmore Hotel is another iconic Islay watering hole, and Peter is an absolute encyclopedia of whisky knowledge. The bar had live music on Friday night; we left around midnight to a heartwarming rendition of Auld Lang Syne.
• Looking back at my notes, I tried 85 whiskies in 8 days on the island, so I'm ready for a vacation from this vacation. We're heading to Skye next and will visit three more distilleries in the next week or so, but nothing like this pace (thankfully).

Farewell to another spectacular week with the best whisky-makers in the world
Ardbeg Heavy Vapours Festival Bottling - This is the 46%, slightly diluted version of the Committee Release we tried yesterday, but it's very similar. It has a dry presentation missing some of Ardbeg's brighter fruit notes, so it almost seemed to have a hole in the middle of the palate. I'm not a big fan, so I wasn't tempted by its 120-pound price tag.
Ardbeg 8 y.o. For Discussion - I'm wondering why Ardbeg would release an 8-year-old whisky, but it's hard to complain about a new, age-stated, higher ABV (50.8%) Ardbeg at a fair price of 60 pounds. This pretty much tastes like a champion's breakfast of a lemon muffin and two cigarettes. If released in America, we'd call this "Ardbeg Bottled in Bond." Good stuff.
Ardbeg Blaaack Committee Release - Alright, hello, this is different. This has lots of ripe orchard fruit, berries, and other rich flavors. On the finish, moreso than on the nose, I get a healthy dose of vanilla. Subsequent sips got more acidic and less pleasurable.
Ardbeg Supernova Committee Release 2014 - This whisky epitomizes what it means to be peaty, not smoky. This whisky is a blend of very peated barrels (or barrels that expressed that character more than normal), but the type of peat is a vegetal, floral, and earthy melange, not the ashy smoke typical of Ardbegs. It's surprisingly mellow on the palate, and on one particularly good sip, there were hints of Boston cream donut on the finish.
Ardbeg 11 y.o. Amontillado Single Cask Feis Ile 2023 - In watches, one way to distinguish between quartz watches and mechanicals (which are more of a luxury item) is by the movement of the seconds hand. Quartz watches tick, while mechanicals have a sweeping, smooth motion. But some super-high-end mechanical watchmakers include a feature called a "dead-beat" seconds hand, which ticks like a quartz watch. So for an extra $10,000 or $20,000, that feature makes a very expensive luxury watch look, in one way, like a regular quartz. That wasn't just random wristwatch trivia, folks; it was a very long metaphor for the fact that this single cask tastes a lot like my favorite bourbon, Elijah Craig Barrel Proof. It has a very oaky but sweet nose, and then a mix of fruit, brown sugar, and more charred wood on the palate before wrapping up with a dried-fruit-and-oak finish. On the one hand, I love every part on it. On the other hand, why would I pay $620 for a scotch that tastes like my favorite $80-100 bourbon? This is the dead-beats seconds hand of the scotch market.
Ardbeg Traigh Bhan Batch 4 - I started getting palate exhaustion by this point. This dram seemed very subtle and balanced, especially in this day and age when almost all Ardbegs are well under 10 years old. The dried glass surprised me with a distinct deli ham note when we got home from festival day. This is a savory Ardbeg, and pretty different than the original Traigh Bhan from 2019.
Ardbeg 10 Cask Strength - OK, one quick pour at home, just to confirm this is as good as I would expect. It is. The "soot and fruit" core character of Ardbeg shines through. Yesterday, I almost asked our tour guide yesterday whether Ardbeg would ever consider doing a 10 at cask strength, since Laphroaig 10 Cask Strength is my favorite series of whiskies. After tasting this, I am holding out hope. Delicious.
And some stray notes from the Bowmore Hotel last night ...
Bowmore Vault Edition No. 2 Peat Smoke - It's so funny, this dram was supposed to highlight the peaty/smoky side of Bowmore's moderately peated spirit. Instead, it hit me with the clearest, most powerful prune note I've ever gotten in a whisky. Not the most complex, but a delightful surprise.
Kilchoman STR Cask 2019 - STR is an experimental cask finish involving shaving, toasting, and recharring (hence, S-T-R) old wine casks to mature whisky. Based on this one, I'm not the biggest fan. Like a dried-out bourbon that had its sweet notes sucked out of its nose before mummification.
Arrrrrrrdbeg! - This pour was pretty pricey, but damned if it isn't worth it. The nose is minty and features starfruit, anise, and mukhwas, with more of those fresh fruit and spice characteristics on the palate, along with a balanced dose of cigar smoke peatiness. A mellow and self-assured Ardbeg, and a fitting tribute to longtime distillery manager Mickey Heads.
Bunnahabhain 12 Cask Strength 2022 ed. - Aberlour A'bunadh is like the Two Face of whiskies for me; half is amazing, but half is harsh and hot (even though we mostly drink cask-strength whisky). This dram is the good half of A'bunadh: spiced cider, sultanas and trail mix dried fruits, cocoa powder, all in a rich and syrupy whisky.
The complete week's recaps are here:
Day One, Lagavulin
Day Two, Bruichladdich, but we skipped and did Bunnahabhain
Day Three, Caol Ila
Day Four, Laphroaig
Day Five, Bowmore and Ardnahoe
Bonus notes from Days One through Five
Day Six, Kilchoman
Day Seven, Bunnahabhain Day, but we did Lagavulin and Ardbeg warehouse tastings
Bonus post with my personal festival awards
Slainte all, and thanks for reading! I'll do a writeup in the next few weeks with some booking and logistics advice, if people are interested.

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Hello, dear survivors!
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The winners of this event are u/AverageWillpower, u/Whoreglow and u/redeux !
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So have you heard that the Blazers are looking to shop around the 3rd pick and Anfernee Simons for a star forward? Yeah, let's finally get into this.
The Blazers lucked themselves into a rather unique position, both with the pick they got - having jumped from 5th to 3rd in the draft - and with the team who managed to get the 2nd pick being the Charlotte Hornets who are likely to draft forward Brandon Miller over G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, with Scoot seemingly falling to 3.
This would make Scoot the 2nd young guard the Blazers recently drafted and their 3rd under 25 guard to play next to Dame...if they weren't trying to shop the pick around.
They have a perfect opportunity to finally do a rebuild...and yet, here we are with yet another rumor about the Blazers trying to build around Dame and get him the help they've left him without for...what, 8 seasons and counting? Like the Rockets who are alleged to be interested in moving the 4th pick, I don't think the Blazers really should be trying to do a two timelines, pseudo rebuild while contending around Lillard.
I also don't think the package they can put together is as great as it's often hyped up to be. As we'll get into, a package around Anfernee and the 3rd pick plus a player or pick or two is quite decent in a vacuum but it certainly isn't good enough to get to get you that Top 10-15 player in the league who can singlehandedly win you a series - if not, a championship. It certainly isn't enough to outbid the likes of the Jazz or, more significantly, the Thunder who may opt for a splash in the offseason as their core develops into a young, hungry playoff team with some greater veteran presence around them.
I'm just going to say it: If Portland really is saying "time's up" and putting together one last effort to compete against Dame, they need to do more than get Siakam, O.G., Karl-Anthony Towns or whichever star's name pops up in rumors leading up to the draft. Not to say those players won't improve the team, but none of them - and yes i'm including Siakam - are good enough to elevate a former lottery team like the Blazers over the past 2 seasons to a Top 3 seed, let alone guarantee a championship.
A duo of Siakam and Dame, Dame and KAT, etc. can be part of one's core championship team but they need the right supporting pieces around them in order to win. To put it mildly, the Blazers...do not have that. Jusuf Nurkic has seen significant regression as a defender and the bench is one of the few to make the Raptors bench look like a bastion of basketball greatness. It shows on the floor and statistically, and it's a large reason why the Blazers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league over the past, one of the worst when it comes to rebounding and in general being near the bottom of the Western Conference before they pulled the plug on their most recent season in an attempt to tank for a Top 4 pick.
If the Blazers are actually going to commit to Dame, they need to engage in a paradigm shift this offseason. Rework the starting 5, the bench and go all-in getting Loyalty McLoyal the team he should have had around him for years instead of endlessly running it back with minor tweaks to who his #2 is.
That means either getting your pick back from the Bulls and shopping the 4 firsts/3 swaps you can or removing the protections and dealing out the 3/3 you would have to improve the roster. Don't just get Siakam, KAT or whoever and set them up to fail with Damian because it's not fair to either player to put them in that situation.
Go after Buddy Hield, see if Myles Turner or Clint Capela are going to be available, or if the Wolves are desperate enough to sign and trade Naz Reid to recoup some assets after the costly Gobert trade - if not, try signing him with the full MLE. And you don't stop there! However they plan to shake up the roster in this hypothetical scenario, they need to significantly improve the center position/rotation and their bench to give Dame an actual chance of winning a ring with what few years left they have in his prime.
Also fire Chauncey Billups, he's a bottom 3 coach and the only reason I can't say he is not the worst is because I can't say the Raptors coach will be objectively worse/better without knowing who will head either team. He isn't 3rd, that's for sure.
But anyway that's the Blazers prerogative. What exactly could the Raptors see in a potential pick that, presumably, revolves around Pascal Siakam?
Since I can be a bit of a wordy writer, i'm going to add some TL;DR sections for each playepick discussed in this little piece for those that want a quick breakdown.
Note: This is not a trade proposal; this is a compilation of the assets and players who could be included in a trade for Pascal Siakam. Additionally, this is not an endorsement of trading Pascal Siakam, etc. in a deal with the Portland Trailblazers.
Anfernee Simons
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The main player who's been the subject of a contentious discussion between Blazers fans and Raptors fans. Whether you think he's overrated, underrated or somewhere inbetween, it is undeniable that Anfernee Simons would have to be included in the trade at minimum.
I can't speak for the Blazers and I won't pretend to speak for all Raptors fans so let me just say this: I like Anfernee Simons. He's one of the more exciting players in the league under 25 even if he doesn't have the same ceiling as a guy like Zion or fellow player nicknamed "Ant" Anthony Edwards.
A borderline All-Star guard with a combination of shooting prowess and explosiveness, he had a breakout season in 2021/22 when Dame went down due to an injury and thus became the Blazers lead point guard in his absence. He's a genuine 3-level scorer who can splash from outside, pressure the rim for a high-flying dunk and he's effective in the midrange too. If nothing else, it cannot be overstated how nice it would be for this team to have another player who's a reliable, 38.7% from 3 volume shooter on a roster so thoroughly lacking in outside shooting
And before you say it, yes, Anfernee Simons is a point guard. This isn't a case like CJ where his skillset is that of a 2 who can do some playmaking but shouldn't run your offense, Simons does have some issues with dribbling the air out of the ball before making a pass, but he is a point guard. He isn't a typical point, operating more as a shoot-first point like Lillard, but he's still capable of cracking out a notable number of assists while getting buckets; he dished out 6 dimes a game with nearly 28 points in the games he's played without Dame as the lead point.
All 11 of them last year.
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Yeah, you might have seen some posts or stats online of what Simons has done without Damian Lillard; in his breakout season of 2021/22, the Anferno was putting up a similar number of assists and cracked 20 points per game, albeit over a more significant sample size of 30 games. And in 2022/23, Anfernee Simons put up 27.9/2.9/5.7 (2.4 turnovers so an AST/TO of 2.38:1 which is solid) while shooting a staggering 41% from 3 on 11 3s.
Those numbers are impressive in a vacuum; his true shooting of 62% is especially notable. However, they require some context and should be taken with an enormous grain of salt.
For one, it's a very small sample size over a lengthy period of the season where teams haven't had to plan for Simons to be the main guard to focus their defense on. He's still the 2nd option so it's not like there's no film watching or the like, but if Anfernee Simons permanently becomes the lead point guard of a team, opposing teams will gameplan around him and his weaknesses more significantly than the very few times where he's asked to be the lead ballhandler in Dame's absence.
His 2021/22 stats, while still a limited overall sample size, do suggest he'll be able to dish out a similar number of dimes as the lead guard (Dame had been ruled out due to injury during the season so teams did have to gameplan around the Ant for a large portion of the season instead of a handful of games scattered throughout the season) and he still has room to grow as a playmaker but once again, it was only a sample size of 30 games so it is hard to draw much out from the games he played.
Speaking of drawing conclusions from said sample size: Yes the Blazers went 4-7 within that 11 game sample size - and bear in mind this sample included games where the Blazers were still trying to contend while facing a variety of teams i.e. not every team was a playoff or contender. That isn't great, however, Ant was generally not the main reason they lost since the 2022/23 Blazers as a whole were pretty terrible all year, even before they blatantly tanked. The same is also true of his breakout year when the Blazers lost Lillard due to injury, they just weren't a good team.
If there is a point of contention around Simons that one can draw from his past 2 seasons, it's his defense which...it's bad.
It's really bad.
He's improved this season on that end to the point where i'd say he's a better defender than Dame - even if his overall defensive rating doesn't support this, the eye test does - but that's like saying Spencer Dinwiddie is a better defender than Trae Young. While Chauncey Billups hasn't been doing either one of Portland's guard any favors, it doesn't change the fact that being better than one of the worst defenders in the league is not an accomplishment to be proud of. All coaching issues aside, Simons is still a notable negative on that end of the floor. He has a propensity for losing his man via ball watching, he's not great at closing out on the perimeter and he's not a lane disruptor by any means. It's not impossible for him to improve as a defender - he's 6'3 with a 6'9 wingspan and much of his defensive weaknesses come from a lack of discipline - but as of right now when his shots aren't falling he's a major liability on the court and his flaws on defense were not well hidden when paired next to another notably poor defender in Dame.
There are a couple of other habits that Simons needs to address - he could stand to be less trigger happy as a scorer and work more on his playmaking given all the promise he's shown in that area - but that's the main issue with Simons. He's a very skilled guard with a similar approach to the game as Dame on both ends of the floor. And we all know Dame isn't locking down the opposing team's point.
Does Anfernee Simons seem like he'll become a guard on the level of Dame? No but that's a ridiculously high bar to hold him to, especially with the limited opportunities he had and will continue to have when he's behind Dame in the guard pecking order. Anfernee is a good player who often shows glimmers of true greatness on offense but whose defense (or lack thereof) is going to require very careful teambuilding to limit exploiting said defense in the playoffs. Perhaps he'll need to be the full-time point to fully achieve his potential as a playmaker but while he doesn't scream All-NBA caliber, he's someone you can easily see eking out a couple of All-Star nods at his peak and is, at worst, a staring-caliber guard. As for whether he can be the lead of a championship contender...we'll get to that when we talk about the pick he'd come with.
TL;DR - Anfernee Simons is an intriguing young player with upside as an explosive, shoot-first PG but one whose poor defense does mean the team's starting lineup/bench has to be built around carefully to account for his current (and likely ongoing throughout his career) weaknesses.
3rd Pick
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It's whomever is left from Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. Maybe you trade down to 4 for some more assets if you're a believer in Amen Thompson, maybe you take Amen if you think he's the best player available and the Rockets won't negotiate for Scoot/Miller but yeah, it's one of those three via the 3rd overall pick.
Before we get into the players, I do want to briefly mention that I actually did a post a while ago on a different sub going over trades involving the 3rd pick and to put it bluntly: The 3rd pick has good value but it doesn't have as much value on its own and trades involving the 3rd pick for an All-Star or even All-NBA caliber player are very rare.
The closest trade to what the Blazers would want in return was in 2000 where the Atlanta Hawks traded the 3rd overall pick to the Vancouver Grizzlies along with Brevin Knight and Lorenzen Wright for Shareef Abdur-Rahim and the 27th overall pick. That 3rd pick turned out to be future HoFer Pau Gasol but no one knew he'd become that at the time. As for what the Grizzlies gave up for the pick, Shareef Abdur-Rahim was not a perennial All-Star nor was he an All-NBA level player. He was a solid player that became an All-Star in his debut season for the Hawks...and that was his only All-Star appearance.
With that in mind, it is a bit wild that it's so commonly suggested that Simons and the 3rd pick alone should be enough to acquire an All-NBA talent like Siakam, especially with how much inflation we've seen in trades for players of that caliber of late or even players who are a step below. Concerns about his contract expiring lowering his value are baffling, as if a team's front office wouldn't talk to him about an extension before making such a trade. Moreover, it's not like the Raptors need to deal him out when they can simply re-sign him in 2024.
Now this year, when Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller could be up for grabs, the 3rd pick has a lot more value given how highly praised those players are, so let's put aside the debate on what is fair for Siakam for a moment and talk about the presumed 3rd overall pick, Scoot Henderson.
The 2nd best player in a draft class containing the best prospect since LeBron James. He's projected to go 3rd because Charlotte is allegedly interested in taking Brandon Miller at 2nd but we'll touch on that later. For now, let's talk Scoot:

• Henderson is a freakish athlete and a terrific floor general; he racked up an average of 6 assists a night on an AST:TO ratio of 1.94:1 and is a strong option on offense due to his abilities as a slasher
• His usage as the G-League Ignite's offense, be it ball screens or handoffs, displayed his ability to break down a team's defense
  • To delve deeper into his production as an offensive guard, his percentage rate of ball screens (43.7%) is only matched or surpassed by 7 players across the entire NBA. 7!
• Despite the athleticism, Scoot is generally good at controlling the ball and not turning it over due to careless mistakes driving to the basket
• For a guard, he's a pretty solid rebounder and, if nothing else, he puts in the effort on defense even if he's not necessarily someone who screams "Future DPoY"
• Intangibles are hard to really quantify but Scoot is the definition of someone who "has that dog in him" and he's someone you trust down the stretch to make the right move
• He puts in effort on defense but he's only 6'2 with a 6'9 wingspan and, well he's no Kyle Lowry when it comes to taking charges or the like
• His shooting is...a work-in-progress; he tends to default to long 2s which he isn't great at making (38% overall), his free throw percentage is only 75% and his 3-point shooting is a measly 31% off the dribble

Needless to say, there's a lot to like about Scoot; if Victor wasn't in this draft, he'd easily go #1 overall. He's often compared to Derrick Rose or even Russell Westbrook as this uber explosive guard who can seriously pressure the rim while generating solid passes for his teammates which is a good comparison though one obviously hope his outside shooting pans out more like Curry or Trae than Russ or Rose.
Losing Siakam would obviously hurt the team in the short term but as far as what Scoot brings, there is a lot of upside to him that would raise the ceiling of the team in the long run. His ability to get to the rim, combined with his athleticism would make him the perfect guard for a team that thrives in transition like the Raptors. He would also have chemistry with another player the Raptors have been rumored to be interested in/may take at 13 in Leonard Miller as they played on the same team but we'll talk about the 13th pick's potential prospects another time.
For now, let's go over one of the problems with trading for Scoot Henderson if he is still on the board, besides the obvious hypothetical of "he might never become a player as good as the one you're giving up" or "what do you do with Fred when you brought in Scoot and Simons" because what you're really asking is this: Is a backcourt of Scoot/Simons the team's guard duo of the future?
This brings me to my big problem with a “trade for Simons + 3” trade if the 3rd pick does end up being Scoot: A backcourt of two undersized guards, one of whom is unproven against NBA competition on defense and the other of whom has been one of the worst guard defenders in the league is not a duo of guards you can build a contender around in the long-term unless both of them become significantly improved defenders. Or at the very least, it's a duo that has historically not led to notable championship contention.
Blazers fans would know this well given their team has only had one year where they weren’t the in the NBA’s basement as far as defensive ratings go, be it with CJ or Anfernee as Lillard’s sidekick; the furthest they ever got with either was the Western Conference Finals and the best their defense has even been was 10th. Every other season, the Trailblazers defense has been amongst the worst in the NBA. Part of those Blazers teams' failures can be attributed to bad coaching, but a more significant portion of the blame be laid at the feet of Dame being a bad defender and undersized who has been paired with bad, undersized guards throughout much of his career.
You can get away with one bad defender or a starter who’s undersized for their position on a championship-caliber team which, if you’re rebuilding by trading away Siakam, that is what you’re hoping to take a step back for. As an example, Dirk Nowitzki wasn’t known for being a lockdown defender and yet the Mavericks won their first and only championship to date with Dirk as the weak link on defense. He was also a phenomenal offensive talent whose weaknesses on defense were mitigated by how much momentum he was able to generate for his team but I digress.
You can get away with running several smaller players for a limited time to force mismatches on offense with the right lineup. The Warriors dynasty comes to mind, where Golden State would close games using their “Death Lineup”. However, that lineup revolved around 4 Hall of Famers (Klay, Dray, Steph, Igoudala) where Steph is the lineup’s weakest link on defense, and this is before we acknowledge that they were able to include yet another HoFer in Kevin Durant to replace Harrison Barnes in a different incarnation of the Death Lineup from 2017 onward.
For that matter, it's not wholly impossible to win a championship with a duo of small guards - the Pistons repeated in the 89/90-90/91 with 6'3 Joe Dumars and 6'1 Isiah Thomas and the Bad Boy Pistons were contenders throughout the 90s - but it is damn near impossible if your lead guards are bad defenders. Whatever can be said about Thomas' various off-court controversies, notably with him being found liable for sexual misconduct during his stint heading a woman's basketball team a la the New York Liberty, he was a phenomenal defender, as was Dumars.
Hell, the Raptors won in 2019 while having Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry share the floor a fair amount of time in the Finals though it is once again worth noting that both were terrific defenders at the time. Even if one wouldn't call their efforts All-Defense caliber, they were both positives on that end of the floor.
Historically speaking, you cannot be a championship-caliber team with two of your starters being undersized negatives on the defensive end barring them being surrounded by generational defenders or said starters being generational offensive players who can make up for how many points you’re giving up on the other end of the floor.
Simons is a gifted scorer with good playmaking but is a truly sorry defender. Scoot Henderson is a talented passer but is undersized for the position and how he fares defensively with teams hunting him as the smallest player on the court will remain to be seen. But with neither of them likely to be a Dumars/Thomas-level defender and the offensive capabilities for one of them being the main question mark as to how good a player they could become, having both of them as the foundation to your team's backcourt seems to cement the duo's future as a non-contending entity.
Let's put this into perspective with some statistics: Of the past 40 years, the only championship to ever be won by a team with what could be considered a bad regular season defensive rating was the 2000/01 Lakers. That team had two generational talents in Shaq and Kobe, and that season is itself an outlier when compared to the rest of the Shaq/Kobe Lakers era that it shouldn't even count. All other championship teams were at least 12th or higher for their season with most championship teams being in the Top 5 in defensive rating.
By the by, in case you're wondering: That team who had 12th in defensive rating was the 1995 Rockets led by the generational talent in Hakeem Olajuwon and said rating had a lot to do with untimely injuries to the 95 Rockets core. That team they still managed to have the 7th best offensive rating in the league despite Drexler's absence for much of the season is a testament to Future Raptors Retiree Hakeem's skills as the best big man of the late 80s, early-to-mid 90s. Are we noticing a pattern here?
Even if we ignore the question about what to do with Fred, the question of what the Raptors backcourt looks like is far more pertinent if it is going to involve some combination of Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons with, presumably, Gary Trent Jr. and another guard coming off the bench for relief. Is a backcourt of Anfernee Simons and Scoot going to turn this team into a Top 3-6 offense for the season without plummeting this team's defense off of a cliff? And if you don't think so, when do you move one of them to open up the 1 or the 2 for another player?
This is a question the team will likely have to answer once they've seen how Simons and Scoot fit togethefit with the rest of the roster; I don't see a 3-team draft day deal where Simons or the 3rd pick are moved elsewhere barring that aforementioned moving down to 4th and I don't see this team without Siakam/with Scoot and Simons being a serious contender for several years even if they do pan out. But it is a question that has me concerned in regards to how this team will function when it's developing a dynamic duo of players who will be picked apart in the playoffs barring one of them turning into a terrific defender.
Whatever else one can say about Point Scottie or even Scottie Barnes when he was crammed into the starting Shooting Guard position for much of the year, it is hard to argue that having either Scottie or Trent & Simons/Scoot as your backcourt makes way more sense defensively even if having both Scottie and Scoot complicates matters on the offensive end since neither are great shooters and Trent's defense is a touch overrated at time due to is propensity to gamble for steals.
All this being said, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Henderson becomes an All-Defense-caliber player or for Simons to a climb out from the deep hole he's dug for himself as one of the worst defenders in the league, and Scoot is still a phenomenal talent. These concerns should be noted, but they shouldn't serve to deter from selecting him 3rd if such a trade were to go down. As a prospect, there's very few players in this draft class who could serve to singlehandedly raise the floor and the ceiling of this team in the long run.
Speaking of other players, however, it should be acknowledged that Scoot isn't the only potentially available player at 3; while all accounts suggest the Hornets prefer Brandon Miller at 3, Scoot is the best player available at 2 and there's no guarantee the Hornets draft for fit. So here's a quick rundown of Miller and a player the Blazers have recently worked out, Amen Thompson:

• Brandon Miller is a 6'9 forward (boo, we have enough of those!) who can shoot (yay, we need more of that!) and has some notable playmaking upside even if his decision-making can be questionable at times. He's a player you could see as either a #1 or a high level #2 option on a championship team though he's not the most switchable guy on defense and you have the usual rookie concerns i.e. "he needs to get the NBA body to thrive". He's gotten a lot of comparisons to Paul George but i'd say his playmaking is further ahead from what PG13 was as a prospect.
• Amen Thompson is someone I talked about in the trade for the 4th pick & he's a very interesting player. A high ceiling, low floor player with unreal athleticism, a 6'7 lead guard who's arguably the best passer in the draft class but has serious questions about the competition he's faced in OverTime Elite/his shooting being as bad as it was. Think Ja Morant but with defense and, again, at 6'7 with a much longer wingspan.

I feel like the trade makes more sense if the Raptors were to go for Amen or Miller but we won't know who the Hornets will chose on draft night until the day of & ideally you'd trade down for 4th to get Thompson plus assets if you're sold on Amen. Plus like I said, it is possible that Scoot does become a good or even great defender so one might not have to worry about choosing between him and Ant down the line.
TL;DR - Scoot is an amazing prospect but his pairing with Simons could be a major problem in the future if both don't improve defensively. Ironically, the 3rd pick becomes simultaneously more valuable for other teams/less valuable for the Raptors if it's Scoot and vice-versa if it's Miller due to those concerns. Thompson is a wildcard at 3 depending on who has the pick/how willing the Rockets are to trade up to 3rd.
Nassir Little
Portland is reluctant to deal out Sharpe. We can debate on whether or not it's fair value for an All-NBA caliber player like Siakam, how much his contract being expiring should affect a deal (we'll ignore the fact that he can be extended by Portland and that any front office making a trade like this should be doing their due diligence by speaking to Pascal Siakam beforehand) or how good Sharpe actually was as a rookie overall instead of solely focusing on that stretch where the Blazers let him do whatever because they were tanking but regardless, the Blazers seem intent on keeping him. Fair enough, Masai is likely aiming for more than Anfernee and 3 - especially for the reasons listed above if it is Scoot Henderson - but Sharpe is likely a hard sell for the front office even if they are going all-in i.e. they want to keep at least one young guy on the roster for the long-term.
That being said, there's still the matter of salary matching, and that's where one of Nassir Little or Sharpe has to come in (They're not going to move Nurkic in the deal for Siakam unless they have something lined up for their center situation i.e. tampering for Naz Reid); the only way for the Blazers to neatly absorb Siakam into their cap with just Simons is by renouncing their rights to Jerami Grant and they need to re-sign him/move him to the 3 (Grant is a really bad rebounder for a PF; the man is a career 4 RPG) if they are serious about competing with Dame.
So...yeah, Nassir Little. Little is what people think O.G. is: A good defender who is often injured, Little is a solid 3 & D wing who, unlike Anunoby, has never played more than 55 games for a given season. Granted, 2019/20 and 2020/21 were shorted to 72 seasons but regardless, injuries have hampered the 23 year-old in the same way that Otto Porter Jr.'s potential was sapped due to a career-long battle with injuries. Still, when considering his age and production, his newest contract ($28M/4 years) is amazing value when he's healthy.
But much like Otto (who I think technically could be sent in such a deal due to the rules around incoming/outgoing salaries), the question of when he's available is a common one. Little is a good young player but one whom you shouldn't get your hopes up about changing the team's direction.
TL;DR - A little salary (sorry) is needed for the deal to happen on draft night & Nassir would be a decent choice for forward depth off the bench. One will have to carefully factor in injury concerns when evaluating the team's depth.
Keon Johnson
So like I said, Sharpe is likely to be ruled out. I debated if I should cover him at all but i'm honestly not sold on Shaedon as a prospect and we've already met the quota for rants with the "Simons/Scoot frontcourt will be exploited" talks. That said, I don't think the Raptors would settle for just Simons and the 3rd pick or the 3rd pick plus assets from a 3rd team were Anfernee moved due to the aforementioned backcourt issues with Simons and Scoot. For now we have Keon Johnson.
Fun fact: When the Raptors were expected to draft 7th in the 2021 draft, Johnson was a common player mocked for the 7th pick.
He wound up going in the 20 to the Clippers (via the Knicks in a trade) who eventually fleeced the Blazers in a deal including him for Norman Powell.
Keon Johnson...hasn't really done a whole lot thus far. He was noted for having an impressive vertical of 48" at the 2021 combine which broke a previous record, he's a terrific athlete and he's about the same age as Scottie so he lines up with a rebuild or retool around Barnes...
...and that's where the positives end. Like I said, Keon hasn't demonstrated all that much on either team he's been on. For a guard, he's not a great ball handler, he isn't a good shooter, he's got decent size and the speed to be a good defender from 1-3 but his potential on that end does not All-Defense caliber. He'd be a throw-in that you'd hope can develop over time, likely spending a lot of time in the G-League because as of right now, he isn't going to be a significant contributor on either end.
TL;DR - Keon is on a rookie deal so you'd be taking a flier on him/betting on your development bringing out the best in him if he were included.
Other pick(s): As far as immediate draft capital goes, the Blazers have the 23rd pick in this draft, which is around the range where players the Raptors have been rumored to be interested in/interviewed (Bilal Couliby, GG Jackson) would likely be available. There's been some speculation that the Blazers could send this pick to the Bulls so they can get their owed pick back from Chicago but nothing concrete has come out regarding whether the Bulls would settle for that vs. hoping the Blazers make the 1st round and lose so they can get a pick in the 16-20 range.
That said, the future pick owed to the Bulls is where things get tricky if the Raptors did want a future 1st: The Blazers pick is protected until 2028. It is technically possible for them to offer a swap in 2029 but without the protections being removed on the Bulls-bound 2024 1st (The 2029 pick cannot be moved due to the Stepien Rule), any future draft capital would need to come in the form of the 2023 trade deadline's currency of choice: Second round picks.
Some of the notable 2nds include:

• A 2024 2nd that could come from the Hornets or Wolves
• A 2028 Warriors 2nd
• This year's second via the Hawks which is 45th
• The Blazers own 2nd in 2028

Not that these are a good substitute for a first-rounder but with the Blazers draft capital being restricted and the CBA's changes to 2nd round contracts, it's better than no future firsts if the 2023 Knicks pick is considered a bridge too far.
TL;DR - There is some interesting draft capital here beyond their own 1sts, especially if the 23rd pick is available in a deep draft like this, but ideally one would want a future 1st from the Blazers rather than a handful of 2nds given Dame's limited window.
Conclusion
I was originally going to talk about the 4th overall pick too but this got a bit lengthy so I made that into a separate post. As far as the 3rd pick package, in some ways it's better than one surrounding the 4th pick because Simons is a flatout better player than any one the Rockets would send back but it's also worse when you factor in Simons or Scoot's respective ceilings vs some of the potential prospects that could come in a 4th pick package?
You're getting significant depth at the guard position if it is Scoot/Simons but there's a huge question mark as to how good the defense will hold up with two undersized guards, one of whom is a bad defender, will hold up in the playoffs.

A bit of a fail today, Bunnahabhain's open day. Before getting to the island, I booked tasting experiences at Lagavulin and Ardbeg, fully intending to swing by Bunnahabhain before the day was over. Unfortunately, the 2 pm at Ardbeg ran long, so we didn't make it.
One of the spirit stills in Ardbeg's new (2021) stillhouse

• Iain McArthur is a Lagavulin legend, working at the distillery for more than 50 years. His warehouse tastings have long been a bucket-list experience for Islay whisky fans. He's semi-retired now, fully retiring later in 2023, and doesn't work every week. But for Feis week, he's been back in the warehouse and cracking guests up, along with a younger host named Ellen who was great. When we last came in 2018, I wore a pair of old, ripped-up jeans, and Iain slapped duct tape over the holes in them, to uproarious laughter. This time around, I made sure to come in holeless jeans :)
• We asked Iain about the rumor we heard yesterday, which is that Port Ellen cut off the other Islay distilleries, and that Beam Suntory retaliated by cutting off their peat supply. He debunked that, explaining that Diageo has its own peat fields. But he did say that he wished Port Ellen had kept supplying at least some malt to the other distilleries. By his account, all those distilleries helped keep Port Ellen alive after the distillery part shut down, so out of respect for that history, they should have kept supplying some malt to everyone.
• Among many laugh lines, Iain claimed that Port Ellen made terrible whisky in the 1980s, which is why it shuttered. And now the newly reopened Port Ellen is trying to replicate that style, so we'll see whether it's any good in about 12 years.
• Iain was very frank about his misgivings with the direction the parent company's taken the last few years. Everyone applauded when he said that he wished they just bottled a good whisky at a fair price for the Feis. It was really sad for us to hear that. The reason we love these distilleries is because of people like Iain, who've represented these amazing whiskies for their whole lives and really care about them.
• The next stop for us was Ardbeg's Warehouse 3 tasting, led by Emma (such a charming host). As Ardbeg fans may know, the distillery's mascot is an adorable little dog named Shorty. It turns out that Shorty was her husband's dog. He passed away in 2014, but he's still all over the distillery - literally, he's painted all over the walls.
• Fascinating fact about the modern whiskymaking process: at every step, there is an on-paper "sale" of the product. So the maltmen make the malt, and then "sell" it to the stillmen, who distill it. Even between the two distillations, the first set of stillmen "sell" it to the second (even though they're the same people). The point of all of this is to track things for accurate taxation.
• Islay sounds like paradise. 0.06% unemployment, and four police officers for the whole island.
• Gaelic note of the day: because it's hard to do accents on most websites, I've always spelled it "Feis." But technically, it should be "Fèis." The accent signals that the vowel should be stretched out (Feeeiiisss). And the two words have a different meaning. "Fèis" is festival. "Feis," without the accent, means sex.

Okay, time to talk whisky:
Lagavulin Feis Ile 2023 14 y.o. Armagnac finish - It's overpriced, but it is damn good. Reminded me of Twizzlers candy, with a sweet and warming finish. Maybe the best Festival bottling from this year, along with Bunnahabhain's 17 y.o. Moine triple cask and Kilchoman's three-cask vatting.
Lagavulin 10 y.o. refill cask - This 57% cask-strength dram was delicious, with notes of sticky rice dessert, coconut, and a strong, industrial peat in the second half. This would be a fun whisky to drink with a green curry.
Lagavulin 12 y.o. red wine cask - I haven't loved a red-wine-matured whisky the entire trip, but there's always an exception that proves the rule. This dram was my favorite whisky of the day. The nose is leathery, but the fruit builds and builds over time, transforming to blueberries on the finish.
Lagavulin 16 y.o. refill European oak cask - Not a sherry cask, they were quick to emphasize this point. I described this one as "briny sweet tea." It has a relatively light, floral body, with an effervescent finish. Lovely whisky.
Lagavulin 18 y.o. refill sherry butt - Although this one was a sherry cask, it tasted very similar to me to the previous dram, and was light in color. Since I liked the 16 y.o., I liked this one a lot too, although I wished for a meatier presentation.
Lagavulin 26 y.o. The Lion's Jewel - Iain pulled this one out as a surprise dram at the end of the tasting, a special treat for Feis Ile. It smells like a high-end leather shop, and, on the palate, combines waxy fruit sweets with olive brine and tannins. The finish is spectacular, fragrant incense and burnt herbs.
Ardbeg 10 - We walked the mile from Lagavulin to Ardbeg and, since we had about an hour to kill, enjoyed two quick drams. Ardbeg 10 is an icon for a reason, a fruity lemon-lime and smoke malt.
Ardbeg BizarreBQ - As soon as we had this, my wife insisted we buy a bottle. It's a rich, dark, oily, and woody dram with distinct notes of dried barley. As she put it: "No fruit, I don't need any of that nonsense."
Ardbeg 2019 4 y.o. refill virgin oak - The first of four single casks in the Warehouse 3 tasting. This barrel was virgin oak (not ex-bourbon), aging a whisky for 10 years, and then refilled with the current spirit and aged for only four years. But you'd never know from tasting it; creamy scents pave the way to a medicinal and lactic palate. We paired this with two cheeses, and it transformed a mellow smoked cheese into a sharp, muscular cheddar.
Ardbeg 2012 10 y.o. first-fill bourbon - After a huge vanilla hit on the nose, this whisky proves to be an intense, sweet dram, but with a spicy smoke finish. One surprise note from Emma: these four cask types are the constituents of An Oa, and I definitely get the sweetness of An Oa in this dram.
Ardbeg 2010 12 y.o. PX cask - I haven't been in a big PX mood on this trip, but this one is lovely: dark fruit syrup and spice again on the finish. The main flaw is that the nose is disjointed and full of that typical PX funk, almost smelling like a permanent marker.
Ardbeg 2013 9 y.o. refill bourbon - If they labeled this Ardbeg 10 Cask Strength, I'd have believed it - and demanded to know how I could buy a bottle. The quintessential lemon-lime note reemerges here.
Ardbeg Heavy Vapours Committee Release - The conceit of Heavy Vapours is that Ardbeg blocked up its usual purifiers, letting a very different, heavier spirit develop. It is hugely smoky, but the effect is somewhat counterintuitive to me. The sweeter flavors of Ardbeg are gone, and I get floral, herbaceous flavors of a gin or tequila on the palate, before a heavy, ashy smoke settles in. I wasn't a big fan of this dram.
One day left, and Ardbeg day is sure to be a barnburner. My wife won a lottery to join a small Committee group for "Operation Smokescreen" tomorrow morning, tasting never-released Ardbegs in the warehouse, so I'll lean on her for some fun notes tomorrow.
UPDATE: Complete festival series linked below.
Day One, Lagavulin
Day Two, Bruichladdich, but we skipped and did Bunnahabhain
Day Three, Caol Ila
Day Four, Laphroaig
Day Five, Bowmore and Ardnahoe
Bonus notes from Days One through Five
Day Six, Kilchoman
Day Eight, Ardbeg
Bonus post with my personal festival awards